The Impact of Climate Change on Northern Lights

The Northern Lights are mainly driven by activity on the Sun and the interaction between charged particles, Earth's magnetic field and gases in the upper atmosphere.

Climate change does not control solar activity, so it isn't expected to switch the Northern Lights on or off. But the relationship is more complicated than saying climate change has no effect at all.

Rising greenhouse gas concentrations are changing Earth's upper atmosphere, while changing weather patterns can also influence whether clouds block our view of the aurora from the ground. The best times to see the northern lights in Iceland are during the fall, winter, and early spring months when the skies are darker.

Does Climate Change Impact Auroras?

Climate change does not directly control the main source of Northern Lights activity. Auroras are primarily driven by activity on the Sun and interactions between charged particles and Earth's magnetic environment.

However, climate change does affect the upper atmosphere where auroral emissions occur. As carbon dioxide concentrations increase, parts of the mesosphere and thermosphere are cooling and contracting. Scientists have measured these long-term changes and expect them to continue as greenhouse gas concentrations rise.

What is much less certain is how noticeable those changes are in the Northern Lights themselves. There is currently no good reason for travellers to expect climate change to make the aurora disappear or suddenly become much less common.

Ways in Which the Climate Affects Northern Lights

Magnetic Field Changes

Human-driven climate change is not considered a driver of Earth's main magnetic field. That field is generated by processes deep within Earth's outer core and plays an important role in directing charged particles towards the polar regions where auroras commonly occur.

Earth's magnetic field does change naturally over time, but those changes should not be confused with modern climate change.

Atmospheric Changes

Auroras commonly occur in the thermosphere and neighbouring regions of the upper atmosphere. These layers are also being affected by rising greenhouse gas concentrations.

The effect differs from what happens near Earth's surface. Carbon dioxide contributes to warming in the lower atmosphere, but higher in the atmosphere it allows more energy to escape into space. This causes cooling and, over time, contraction of the upper atmosphere.

Researchers have measured declining thermospheric density and other long-term changes. Scientists are still studying how changes in temperature, density and atmospheric composition interact with space weather and auroral processes.

Solar Activity

The solar activity responsible for changes in aurora activity originates on the Sun, not in Earth's climate system.

Changes in the solar wind and events such as coronal mass ejections can increase geomagnetic activity around Earth and produce stronger or more widespread auroras. Climate change on Earth does not cause these solar events.

Could Climate Change Affect Our Ability to See the Northern Lights?

Yes, potentially, through changes in weather rather than changes in the solar activity that creates the aurora.

To see the Northern Lights from the ground, you need at least partly clear skies. Climate change can alter regional temperature, precipitation and weather patterns, which may in turn affect cloud conditions.

However, changes in cloud cover are complex and vary by location and season. It is therefore too simplistic to say climate change will automatically mean more cloudy nights and fewer visible auroras in Iceland.

For an individual night, the current cloud forecast remains much more useful than long-term climate trends.

Learn About the Northern Lights at Perlan

Perlan's Áróra Northern Lights Show combines an 8K planetarium projection system with surround sound to explain the science and stories behind the aurora.

Visitors can learn how the Northern Lights form, why their colours change and how activity on the Sun interacts with Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field.

Perlan also explores climate change through its glacier and climate exhibitions, making it possible to learn about both atmospheric phenomena and the more visible effects of a warming climate in Iceland.